JAKARTA – The government officially implemented a minimum benchmark price for coal exports starting March 1, 2025, through the Coal Reference Price (HPB).

Under this regulation, exporters must use the HPB as the reference price for both export and non-DMO (Domestic Market Obligation) domestic sales.

Jacquelin Hamdani and Nathania Giovanna Adjie, analysts at CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia, noted that this policy has the potential to stabilise selling prices but also poses a risk of market share loss for exporters.

“This policy could protect the Average Selling Price (ASP) from a decline. However, in a worst-case scenario, Indonesia may lose market share if competitors offer prices lower than the HPB,” they wrote in their research report last week.

The analysts also projected that coal companies could see a profit increase of 31-37% in 2025 if coal ASP rises by 10%.

Nonetheless, CGS International Sekuritas Indonesia maintains a Neutral rating for the coal sector, citing attractive dividends despite limited price growth for coal.

Coal mining companies such as PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) received HOLD recommendations, with target prices of IDR 8,900 and IDR 23,700 respectively. Meanwhile, PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) received a REDUCE recommendation, with a target price of IDR 2,100. (KR/ZH)