JAKARTA – The inflation pressure is expected to loosen starting from this year’s Eid until August 2023. It is also in line with the estimated decrease in retail sales and price.

Erwin Haryono, Executive Director of Department of Communication of Bank Indonesia (BI), mentioned that the Price Expectation Index (PEI) in May and August 2023 were at 130.3 and 128.1, declining from the PEI in April and July 2023 of 145.1 and 133.5. “Those decreases coincide with the end of religious festivities period, as well as the easy access towards goods distribution,” he said in the official disclosure published today (12/4).

On the other hand, BI Survey shows that retail sales in May 2023 are estimated to decline, whereas retail sales in August 2023 increased. The Sales Expectation Index (SEI) in May 2023 is at 149.6, lower than 161.2 seen in April 2023. Then, the SEI in August 2023 is reported at 152.7, shifting from 142.9 in July 2023. The SEI in May 2023 declines following the normalisation of the public’s demand post-Eid.

According to BI data, the realisation of inflation is higher than the PEI in February 2023. Throughout 2022, the realisation of inflation skyrocketed compared to the PEI. On the contrary, in 2021, the realisation of inflation was lower than the PEI at that time. (LK/ZH)