JAKARTA – Inflation is projected to grow in January 2025 before declining in April 2025, according to the Retail Sales Survey of Bank Indonesia in November 2024.

Based on said survey, quoted today (11/12), Price Expectation Index (PEI) in January 2025 was recorded at 157.8, much higher than 152.6 seen in December 2024. The uptrend partly resulted from heavier rainfall next January, also leading to higher PEI points in January 2025 compared to January 2024 at 135.

In the meantime, PEI in April 2025 is expected to reach 165.4, declining from 169.4 in February 2025, following market normalisation post-Eid-al-Fitr. This projection is also lower than April 2024’s PEI points reaching over 140.

The survey further predicts that retail sales in January and April 2025 will arrive at 144.7 and 146.5, respectively, down from 163.9 recorded in December 2024 and 156.5 in March 2025.

The estimated downtrend next January is driven by demand normalisation after Christmas and New Year holidays, whereas next April’s retail sales will be reduced following Eid-al-Fitr holiday. (LK/ZH)