JCI fell 7.36% this year, is there still a chance for rebound?
JAKARTA. The performance of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) slumped 7.36% from the beginning of 2025, touching its lowest level since October 2021. Last week, the index closed at 6,636.
The decline made the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) lose IDR886 trillion or 7.18% of its market capitalisation since the beginning of the year, to IDR11,450 trillion. At the end of 2024, the stock exchange's market capitalisation was still at IDR12,336 trillion.
During 3-7 March 2025, the JCI has actually gained 5.8%, reversing the decline of around 5% that occurred in the previous week.
Indoasia Aset Manajemen analyst Bella Ghassani said the strengthening of the JCI last week was still too early to be a reversal point from the bearish trend. ‘The market is still challenging,’ Bella told IDNFinancials.com.
The strengthening of the index last week, said Bella, tended to be influenced by President Trump's policy sentiment, which suspended tariff policies against Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the IDX is reviewing the rules for share buybacks without GMS.
Nevertheless, foreign investors, who have recorded an outflow of Rp22.35 trillion since the beginning of the year, are said to still have a big share in determining the potential trend of the JCI going forward. ‘It will still be determined by foreign investors, because the majority of market growth is currently dominated by domestic investors,’ said Bella.
Meanwhile, technically, Phintraco Sekuritas analysts said that JCI was above MA20, in the range of 6,630 on Friday (7/3) yesterday, along with the widening of the positive slope on MACD. However, the Stochastic RSI indicator began to move towards the overbought area.
‘JCI minor bullish reversal is likely to meet strong resistance at 6,700 earlier this week. JCI is expected to tend to fluctuate in the range of 6,550-6,750 this week,’ wrote Phintraco Sekuritas analysts in their report.
In addition, the market is also said to be still anticipating the release of the latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) data, which will be released on Tuesday (12/3) tomorrow. ‘This projection is interesting to watch because it occurs amidst the increased risk of global uncertainty,’ he added. (KR/LM)