JAKARTA – Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey (LSPE BI) forecasts that inflationary pressure will peak in March 2025, coinciding with Ramadan and Idul Fitri, before easing in April 2025. However, data from previous years shows that realised inflation often exceeds price expectations.

In a press release, quoted Wednesday (12/3), Ramdan Denny Prakoso, Executive Director of the Communication Department of BI, stated that the decline in inflationary pressure in April 2025 aligns with price normalisation after Ramadan and Idul Fitri.

The expected rise in inflation in March 2025 is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH), which stands at 179 points, while the IEH for April 2025 is expected to ease to 159.6 points. Inflation is projected to rise again in July 2025 from June 2025, as indicated by the July 2025 IEH of 155.4 points, higher than the June 2025 IEH of 152.3 points.

According to the data, realised inflation during Ramadan and Idul Fitri in April 2024 was higher than the IEH estimate, which hovered around 170 points. A similar trend was observed during Lebaran in 2023. (LK/ZH)