JAKARTA – Global uncertainties have once again become a concern for capital market players following the escalation of trade tensions between the United States (US) and Canada on Tuesday (11/3). Both countries have increased import tariffs on each other’s commodities.

The latest development saw the US threatening a 50% tariff on Canadian metal products entering the US, while Canada prepared to raise a 25% tariff on electricity exports to several US states. In response, the US suspended its 50% tariff threat but maintained a 25% tariff on Canadian metal products.

"Undoubtedly, the combination of regional market sentiment and domestic noise has driven the IHSG into a medium-term downtrend since its peak in September 2024 at the 7,900 level," said Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, to IDNFinancials.com today.

This uncertainty, according to Liza, has even led to the consolidation of several countries frustrated by US actions. At an extreme level, countries like Russia, China, and Iran have conducted large-scale military exercises in Oman’s waters.

Amid these tensions, Liza pointed out that there is still potential for IHSG to strengthen by the end of the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. However, this will "require significant effort from IHSG" to stay above the 6,520-6,500 level and break through the MA20 resistance area, which is in the range of 6,630-6,700.

"For IHSG to comfortably rise again towards the 6,880/7,000 area as the Q1 target (by the end of March 2025)," Liza explained.

However, Liza stressed that the potential for IHSG to strengthen also depends on various factors. These include easing geopolitical and tariff tensions, positive sentiment in the domestic market, "and the implementation of Good Corporate Governance (GCG) to attract investment," Liza added.

In her note to investors on Tuesday (11/3), Liza also outlined the possibility that IHSG could rebound to 7,000 by the end of Q1 this year. This opportunity will be supported by fund managers polishing their portfolios at the end of the quarter and strengthening big bank stocks such as BBRI and BBCA. (KR/ZH)